Searching for a Crystal Ball: Forecasts and Long-range Planning


Michael Dardia and Laura Mameesh
September, 2001

Recent forecasts suggest that California ’s population may grow by 15 million in the next 20 years.Largely in response to these forecasts —and the resulting images of unending traffic congestion —Governor Davis formed the Commission on Building for the 21st Century to draft a 25-year plan for bolstering the state ’s infrastructure.Since such large-scale undertakings not only require extended planning to build,but also require massive financial commitments to be repaid over decades,infrastructure projects are especially dependent on long-term planning and therefore long-term forecasting.