Got data? Monitoring the US economy
An economy under disruption is difficult to gauge. Take, for instance, the current U.S. economy and its struggles with job growth, energy prices, inflation, and more.
But that’s precisely the challenge today, according to a panel of prominent economists speaking at the 2026 SIEPR Economic Summit on March 6.
“It's much harder to measure in real time when all the relationships are changing, the sectors driving growth are changing,” said Julia Coronado, president of economics consulting firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. “It leads to big revisions in the data … so there's a greater need to triangulate across sectors.”
Despite the shifting landscape, Coronado and her fellow panelists provided many insights on the economy and shared their favorite charts depicting the state of affairs. There was also a clear consensus: Numerous current geopolitical disruptions and recent policy changes are creating high levels of uncertainty with real and practical consequences.
“The more uncertain you are about the future, the less likely you are to invest or hire or expand your business, and so that’s going to be a headwind to the U.S. economy,” said Coronado.
Much of the panel discussion centered on the middle class and some of its greatest concerns, particularly job loss. Hiring in many sectors has slowed and monthly job losses are offsetting gains. The rising use of artificial intelligence may also be contributing to the financial pain for individuals, as investment levels are growing in the AI sector but not in the areas of health care and renewable energy.
“I do worry about a lot of things related to the possibility of AI displacement,” said Ernie Tedeschi, head of economic insights and research at electronic payments firm Stripe. “I think our unemployment insurance system is completely not up to the task of (absorbing) potential future shocks.”
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, which she described as “the bank of the middle class,” raised a key point: Who will enjoy the benefits enabled by AI? “We also want to be thinking about (how) we don't want to leave an entire middle class behind in this success” of AI, Long said.
In recent years, overall middle-class wages have grown faster than inflation as a whole, but the middle class remains concerned about high inflation in particular areas underpinning day-to-day life, including housing, energy, and childcare, added Long. Crossing psychological thresholds, too, such as a gas price of $4 a gallon, will affect individual behavior and ultimately reduce consumer spending, harming the economy.
Jared Bernstein, who chaired former President Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, reminded the audience that consumer sentiment frequently doesn’t reflect economic data. Even if prices aren’t rising substantially, “people remember what things used to cost,” he said, and may believe inflation is higher than it actually is.
Bernstein suggested policymakers may need to consider more public investments to protect individuals from economic uncertainty and the financial stress of job loss. Unemployment insurance and apprenticeships for skills retraining are a start, he said, but other programs worth considering include a “national jobs guarantee” or “national wage insurance program.”
Photos by Ryan Zhang.
