At SIEPR, the Fed’s Philip Jefferson reflects on the central bank’s “delicate balancing act”
With the U.S. economy facing challenges from conflicts in the Middle East and the proliferation of artificial intelligence, Philip Jefferson, vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, visited the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) on July 16, 2026, where he met with faculty and other members of the Stanford community for an event hosted by SIEPR and Stanford's Rock Center for Corporate Governance.
Jefferson, in a speech delivered before a packed conference room at SIEPR, signaled he supports holding interest rates steady at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent but would be open to raising rates if inflation doesn’t move closer to the Fed’s longstanding target of 2 percent.
And in a follow-on Q&A with Neale Mahoney, the Trione Director at SIEPR, Jefferson reflected on a number of other pressing economic issues, including:
- a “low hire, low fire” job market (Firms, Jefferson said, “are dealing with a lot of uncertainty in terms of macroeconomic policy and they are waiting to see how the implementation of artificial intelligence in their sectors will play out over time.”)
- growing adoption of stablecoins, a form of digital currency intended to be safer than other cryptocurrencies (“We [at the Fed] never want to get in the way of innovation [but] our job is to make sure that banks know that we are watching them to make sure they’re taking into account all of the risks associated with these new technologies.”)
- and the Iran war’s oil supply shock (“I expect the effects on demand to be muted, because the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil production and U.S. production is less oil-intensive than in the past.”).
Jefferson also highlighted the importance of collaboration between policymakers and the research community in navigating complex economic challenges. He credited the Taylor Rule, an approach to managing inflation developed by SIEPR Senior Fellow John Taylor, for making a “fundamental contribution to the science of monetary policy.” And he suggested future research that could be helpful to monetary policymakers, including studies that shed light on the relationship between short-run and longer-run inflationary expectations, and on the mismatch between consumer sentiment surveys that suggest people are pessimistic about the economy and yet they keep spending. “We’d value insights from the academic community,” Jefferson said.
When asked for his advice to college graduates unnerved by a slowdown in hiring for entry-level positions, Jefferson took off his Fed hat — noting that he, too, has sons who are early in their careers. “Gain the skills that you naturally gravitate towards,” he said. And, he added, be open to moving to where the jobs are. “It’s important to be very flexible with regards to geography,” Jefferson said.
Kimathi Marangu, fellow at Stanford’s Rock Center for Corporate Governance, welcomes attendees and introduces Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
Attendees pack the conference room at SIEPR to hear the perspectives of Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivers remarks, “Navigating Economic Shocks: A Monetary Policymaker’s Perspective,” at SIEPR on July 16, 2026.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and SIEPR Trione Director Neale Mahoney shake hands after their conversation at SIEPR.
SIEPR Senior Fellow and Professor of American Economic History, emeritus, Gavin Wright, shares a laugh and some old memories together with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
SIEPR Senior Fellow Isaac Sorkin, associate professor of economics at Stanford, reunites with his former professor, Philip Jefferson, who taught at Swarthmore College before joining the Fed.
SIEPR scholars, including Anat Admati (below left) and Darrell Duffie (below right), engage with Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson during his Stanford visit.
