Political Alignment and the Distribution of Development: Evidence from Indian Constituencies

We examine whether political congruence across national, state, and local governments, full vertical alignment, improves distributive capacity in federal systems. Exploiting close state elections in India (2011–2019) and a sharp regression discontinuity design, we estimate its causal effects on inequality, growth, program delivery, and financial development. Triple alignment reduces annual nightlight-based Gini coefficients by 2-3%, raises local growth by 2% annually, and expands welfare access and banking penetration. These effects are concentrated in SC/ST constituencies and absent under partial alignment, consistent with a dynamic model of complementary political effort.