Short and Long Run Uncertainty

Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using rm and macro implied volatility data from options of 30 days to 10 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these dierent time hori- zons, nding that oil price volatility is particularly important for short-run uncertainty, policy uncertainty is particularly important for long-run uncertainty, while currency volatility and CEO turnover appear to equally impact short- and long-run uncertainty. Examining a panel of over 4,000 rms from 1996 to 2013 we nd that R&D is relatively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than investment, and in turn investment is rel- atively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than hiring. In a simulation model we investigate the channels underlying this pecking-order response to long-run uncertainty, and show that lower depreciation rates and higher adjustment costs lead R&D and in- vestment to be more sensitive to longer-run uncertainty than hiring. Collectively, these results suggest that recent events that have raised long-run policy uncertainty may be particularly damaging to growth by reducing R&D and investment.