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Further Results on a Black Swan in the Money Market

May 2008
Working Paper
07-046
By  John Taylor, John Williams
Using alternative measures of term lending rates and counterparty risk and a wide variety of econometric specifications, we find that counterparty risk has a robust significant effect on interest rate spreads in the term inter-bank loan markets. In contrast, we do not find comparably robust evidence of significant negative effects of the Fed’s term auction facility (TAF) on term lending rates. This analysis incorporates the latest data from the ongoing turmoil in the money markets and confirms earlier findings reported in Taylor and Williams (2008).